Week 18 2024 is upon us in the NFL, and our opening thought: There should be no Week 18. Playing an odd number of games in a season is ridiculous and it makes my possibly-OCD brain shiver and convulse.
Anyway, now that you have been blessed with that mental imagery, it’s time to talk about the playoff picture across the league. Whether or not there should be an 18th week of the season, there is, but are there contenders still playing for anything? Who has locked up what spots?
The big picture view is that almost everything has been locked up entering the final week of the season. In fact, most of it was locked up entering last week. That is probably not what the league was hoping for in expanding the playoffs to 14 teams, but nevertheless, the disparity between the competitive teams and non-competitive teams in 2024 has been large. While seeding has shifted around a bit, and there is a team, maybe two, in each conference still in the hunt, we knew who was likely to make the playoffs weeks ago.
Further Off-Site Reading: Clinching Scenarios from NFL.com
Week 18 2024 NFL Playoff Picture: NFC
Detroit is currently the number 1 seed in the NFC, but they are tied in the NFC North standings with Minnesota. Those two teams are playing each other in Week 18: Detroit will be at home, and this game was flexed to Sunday night, meaning the final game of the 2024 regular season will decide the top seed. The winner gets a first-round bye, and the loser will be the 5-seed and likely get a trip to Tampa. One would imagine that 5-seed will be favored on the road against the Bucs. Detroit can also clinch the 1-seed with a tie, whereas Minnesota must win.
Philadelphia is locked into the 2-seed, meaning they still must play on Wild Card Weekend despite a 13-win season. Their opponent is not yet clear: It will be either Green Bay or Washington, both of whom have clinched berths. Washington will be the 6-seed if they finish with the same record as Green Bay, but the Packers can still jump them with a Commanders loss. The 7-seed is going to Philly.
The Rams won the NFC West but are not yet locked into their 3-seed. They can still fall to fourth if the Bucs win the South and catch them in the standings. As for the 4-seed, Tampa Bay leads their division but Atlanta is still mathematically alive. If Atlanta wins the South at 9-8, they will be the 4-seed regardless of what the Rams do. Their task from there would be mighty: Beat either 14-win Detroit or Minnesota.
Week 18 2024 NFL Playoff Picture: AFC
Some have complained that Kansas City is lucky, or fortunate, or whatever else you’d like to call it, but they win. They may not all be convincing, but they are wins. The Chiefs locked up the 1-seed on Christmas and will get the AFC’s sole bye.
With regards to the 2-seed, Buffalo has sealed that up as well. They will play the lowest AFC wild card team, the number 7 seed. As of today, that’s Denver. Also alive for that spot are Miami and Cincinnati, but if the Broncos win in Week 18, it does not matter what either one of them do. Even if Denver wins, they cannot advance beyond the 7-seed; they are going to Buffalo if they make the playoffs, and the same goes for Miami or Cincinnati. The Colts eliminated themselves with a disastrous game against the Giants, which took one more team out of the wild card running.
Baltimore is the 3-seed but are not guaranteed it. Pittsburgh can still take the AFC North with a win and Ravens loss, and the 3-seed with it. However, the AFC North winner is locked into the 3-seed. This is because Houston, AFC South winners, can finish with no more than 10 wins, and the AFC North winner will have at least 11.
The 5-seed and 6-seed are not fully determined. It will be either the Chargers or the AFC North 2nd-place team, but the order is still to be determined. The 6-seed will visit the AFC North winner, which could mean a Steelers-Ravens rematch in a certain scenario, while the 5-seed is going to Houston.
