Our first installment on the reborn Bracket Yard of the Pick Six segment has to deal with the NFL’s 2024 Wild Card weekend (which is happening in 2025, but yes).
It just so happens that there are six games on the schedule (even though the old configuration of 12 teams in the postseason was objectively better). Nevertheless, we will take advantage of it and give you a true pick six.
Now, how does this work? We’ll pick all six Wild Card round games, both straight-up and against-the-spread. If we are right, you may bask in whatever glow we emanate. If we are wrong, what pick six?
The games will be predicted in chronological order. Of course, you can also see our bracket prediction for the first round’s straight-up picks, but not the spreads.
2024 Wild Card Weekend Picks: Saturday
Los Angeles (-3) at Houston
The Chargers head to Houston for the first game of the postseason, and this is one of just two games in which the road team is the favorite. It makes sense, though: the Chargers have not been in a slump like Houston was. Try not to put too much stock in the fact that the Texans beat up Tennessee last week: Anyone could have beaten them the way they were playing to end the season, and congrats on the number one pick. I’m sure you totally won’t squander it given that you’re going to force together a returning coach and a new GM.
Anyway, back to this game: Houston did not have a great close to the season, and Joe Mixon has been a minor factor in the past few contests. He will have to look more like the running back that has been getting 20 to 25 touches and over 100 yards on the ground. CJ Stroud also did not do himself any favors with how he played against playoff teams from Kansas City and Baltimore.
Meanwhile, aside from the Chargers’ coach factor, we’ve seen good play out of Justin Herbert on the road this season. Houston will need to come up with some defense against Herbert’s squad, because if he and receivers like Ladd McConkey get going, I’m not sure the Texans could keep up in a track meet. I do not think the Chargers are much better than Houston, but probably good enough to win this game.
S/U PICK: Los Angeles
ATS PICK: Los Angeles -3
Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-9.5)
Now, if we mentioned that Houston kind of limped into the playoffs this year, then what did Pittsburgh do? They’re being carted in at this point. The Steelers enter the postseason having lost four games in a row. Most of them were double-digit losses, except for the finale against a desperate Bengals team.
They did beat Baltimore earlier in the season, but that seems like an eternity ago with Pittsburgh having lost five of seven games since then. In a matchup in Baltimore a few weeks ago, the Ravens won comfortably.
We know what Baltimore’s weapons are: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, and the list goes on. (Update: Zay Flowers will not be playing in this game.) If it’s a question of quarterback play, you would much rather have Lamar and the Ravens offense that averages over 30 points per game. On paper, Pittsburgh’s Russell Wilson has been serviceable, but Jackson is putting up video game numbers on a weekly basis, throwing 41 touchdowns this year and just four picks.
Pittsburgh should be pleased with themselves if they are still in this game in the fourth quarter. The momentum away from them has been significant and a road playoff game against an explosive team is not the ideal place to try to work out your issues.
S/U PICK: Baltimore
ATS PICK: Baltimore -9.5
2024 Wild Card Weekend Picks: Sunday
Denver at Buffalo (-8.5)
Buffalo is an established playoff team that has yet to return to the Big Game since the days of Marv Levy and Jim Kelly. Kansas City is usually what stops them from going there. However, they have to dispense with another AFC West team first: the Broncos, a team that worked hard under Sean Payton and made a surprise run to the playoffs with rookie quarterback Bo Nix.
Denver is playing with the house’s money here, so to speak. Almost nobody expected them to get to the playoffs, let alone win a game on the road in Buffalo. If they lose, then they can still say they had a great season, but if they win, it would be a revelation. All the pressure here is on Buffalo, a team with iron-clad expectations, but the Bills are good enough to realize those expectations. I would not want to have to be a defensive coordinator plotting against Josh Allen.
With all that said, while I think Buffalo can and will go far in this postseason, they do not always inspire confidence in their home playoff games. For example, they struggled to beat Miami in Orchard Park two years ago in below-freezing weather – a game that should have clearly favored the Bills. I think it’s a Buffalo win but not necessarily a blowout.
S/U PICK: Buffalo
ATS PICK: Denver +8.5
Green Bay at Philadelphia (-4.5)
This is perhaps the most intriguing game on the card for this weekend. You have two successful franchises – Green Bay in the overall historical sense, and Philadelphia with more recent winning. Records aside, Green Bay is a tough team and can win this road game.
If they do, they will have had to overcome some things, like Jordan Love returning from injury (probably) and limiting the damage Saquon Barkley will inflict on them. Meanwhile, the Eagles’ own quarterback, Jalen Hurts, is coming out of concussion protocol, having not played for a few weeks. Philly took the week off last week against the Giants and still won, while the Packers lost a close game at Lambeau to the Bears.
It’s been an uneven last few weeks for Green Bay, having lost close games to Minnesota and Detroit, but falling to Chicago in a meaningless contest and getting blown out by Seattle. Even if they win, I do not think they are destined for a deep run. If Love doesn’t play for whatever reason, the Eagles should be clear favorites. Green Bay going to Philly and winning with a backup quarterback would be confirmation of “it wasn’t meant to be” for the Eagles.
The Eagles should win, but my confidence in that is maybe 60 to 65 percent. Green Bay vanquished an NFC East 2-seed just a year ago, which is not to say it will happen again, but this team can handle the playoffs. I do not think they will be intimidated playing on the road in a very hostile environment and should be able, if nothing else, to keep the game close. It has the makings of something like a 27-24 Philly win. The below ATS pick reflects both Hurts and Love playing at quarterback.
S/U PICK: Philadelphia
ATS PICK: Green Bay +4.5
Washington at Tampa Bay (-3)
This might be the messiest game on the slate, but potentially the most fun, if you like offense. Both of these teams are in the top seven in total offense this year, and each has dynamic playmakers. Washington’s is of course their rookie quarterback, Jayden Daniels, who leads the team in both passing and rushing yards, and is responsible for 31 total touchdowns. Daniels also helped WR Terry McLaurin have a great 1,000-yard season with 13 touchdown catches, which is second in the league behind Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase.
Baker Mayfield, on the other hand, has the reliable Mike Evans as a target, and he had a very similar year as McLaurin: over 1,000 yards and 11 touchdowns. Mayfield is no slouch himself, passing for 4,500 yards in 2024 and an eye-popping 41 touchdowns. This is the same number Lamar Jackson has in the passing game, but the difference is Lamar threw only four picks all year while Baker has thrown 16. Both teams are average defensively, but Washington has won their turnover battle this season, whereas Tampa Bay did not.
This game has all the makings of a slugfest, and it may come down to whichever team has the ball last. Someone around here is going to pull an upset, and I feel Tampa is a little shaky. Give me the Commanders on the road.
S/U PICK: Washington
ATS PICK: Washington +3
2024 Wild Card Weekend Picks: Monday
Minnesota (-1) at Los Angeles
The final game of the six-game wild card round has the closest spread, and what a surprise, it’s the one about which this website is the most conflicted. The Rams are getting a point at home against Minnesota, a 14-win team that some people believe are not as good as their record indicates. If they feel that way, it’s because Minnesota crushed all the bad teams on their schedule, but have gone just 3-3 against teams that made the playoffs.
Look, if the Vikings have gotten to 14-3, much like the 15-2 Chiefs that have their doubters, they have figured out ways to win games while not quote-unquote looking the part. Who’s to say they cannot figure out a way to win this one as well? Sam Darnold’s career has been reborn, while it must be a quarterback’s dream to throw to Justin Jefferson.
As for the Rams, it’s been a nice year. They have been to the playoffs in back-to-back seasons at 10-7, but lost last time in a heartbreaker. Could this be another one? It may come down to defense, and if it does, Minnesota’s is statistically better.
We will see if this game gets played in Los Angeles due to the tragic situation with the wildfires, or if the venue is changed.
S/U PICK: Minnesota
ATS PICK: Minnesota -1
