Today on the Bracket Yard, we look at the contenders for the 2025 NCAA Tournament and size up where they fall in terms of likelihood of making the tournament.

SEC

We are going to start with the SEC, but before we begin, this was an astonishing conference to plot on the continuum. Almost the entire conference is in tournament contention – save for just two teams. This is about as dominant a conference as I have seen in this sport in a while. They are going to get a lot of bids with the year they are having.

Locks (7)
Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, Alabama, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Ole Miss

The locks for the tournament are those teams who could coast the rest of the way and still make the tournament. There is a world where the SEC gets three 1-seeds. Duke would probably have to stumble to not get one of them, so three is probably the max, but two looks likely. As for the rest of these teams, most are scattered around the top four or five lines.

Probables (2)
Mississippi State, Missouri

The next tier below that are the probables, those teams that will most likely get into the tournament but who are on track for mid-tier seeds and are perhaps less secure than the teams above them.

The resumes for both are fine, and I would put these two teams just shy of being locks. Mississippi State could probably stand to have a higher NET ranking than 30 but with their Quadrant 1 wins, they should be fine. Mizzou has four of them and a higher NET ranking, but they’re a little light on road and/or neutral court wins. Maybe a little work to do here, but not much, I would not be overly worried about either missing the tournament.

Bubble But IN (4)
Texas, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Georgia

Then it’s to the bubble, and the teams who are on the right side of it are Texas, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, and Georgia. The team here at the least risk for now seems to be Texas, but not by a lot, and the team at the most risk is probably Georgia, who we have right on the borderline. Most of the 10 Texas losses were Quadrant 1 games, but then you look at a team like Georgia and the resume definitely needs some work. They have two Quadrant 1 wins and just one true road win. Georgia fattened up their record on lowly teams, and the prominence of the SEC may carry them into the field, but by no means are they safe.

Bubble But OUT (1)
Arkansas

As for the teams on the wrong side of the bubble, we have Arkansas. The Razorbacks are right on the cut line, maybe a spot or two under it. I could envision a scenario in which Georgia and Arkansas swap spaces on this board very soon, or even both get into the field. Arkansas has a worse NET, at 41 as of today, but they have an extra Quadrant 1 win over Georgia and a couple road wins, none bigger than the one at Kentucky, but they also took out Texas and Michigan, so their road wins are very good. Arkansas’ record against Quadrant 2 isn’t that great at 1-2, which is a disadvantage relative to Georgia because the Bulldogs are undefeated outside of Quadrant 1 games.

Probably Screwed (1)
LSU

Onto the teams who aren’t on the bubble because they aren’t doing well, the team probably screwed is LSU. They’re sitting at .500, which is a hard boundary for an at-large bid, and their NET isn’t that good at 82. There are too many holes in their resume with just one road win and one Quadrant 1 win. If they get hot late, maybe they can do something, but more likely than not, they are out of it this year.

Definitely Screwed (1)
South Carolina

And finally, the SEC team we put in the “definitely screwed” category, where you had better plan on a miracle run in the SEC Tournament, that goes to South Carolina. Their NET ranking is only a little worse than LSU’s, but their record is dreadful and they have a Quadrant 4 home loss to North Florida, so they were pretty much cooked right out of the gate.

ACC

Locks (1)
Duke

Over to the ACC, and do you remember when this was the dominant conference? Well, they’re not anymore, and this screen should tell you why. Just one tournament lock, and it’s Duke. The ACC has essentially one guaranteed bid and the SEC is at seven, at the absolute worst. Probably way more than that in practice. Duke is ruling a weakened conference this year.

Probables (2)
Clemson, Louisville

As for the probables, we’ll say Clemson and Louisville. Both should get in short of a major collapse. Nothing between a 6 to 9-seed for either one would be all that surprising. They are good enough to be in the tournament and stable in terms of outlook.

Bubble But IN (0)

Bubble But OUT (5)

The bubble in the ACC has some teams on it, but all of them as of today are on the wrong side. Until Wake Forest lost to Florida State yesterday, we would have very grudgingly said they were still in, but not anymore. Their NET is questionable at 67, they have just one Quadrant 1 win, and they have a Quadrant 3 loss. Five road wins is about the only standout item on their resume. At this point, it’s just not good enough and they can’t afford to give away home games against teams at or below their level of competitiveness. I would probably put in both Georgia AND Arkansas before them.

Then you have the big elephant in the room, North Carolina. By the standards of some, it has been a mediocre year, but from Carolina standards, it has been a dumpster fire. Their resume is unimpressive and like Wake, they have just one big win all season. The home loss to Stanford also hurt. Not much meat on the bone there, nor for any of these other teams, and it’s partially a function of a down ACC, but UNC played 11 Quadrant 1 games and lost ten of them, so this is their own fault. They had plenty of runway to get off the ground but did not take advantage.

Pitt, Stanford, and SMU have also looked unimpressive. SMU has been touted as a bubble team but they have no Quadrant 1 wins, which is going to be a major obstacle to them getting into the tournament. Having just one of those wins is going to be a problem, let alone zero.

Probably Screwed (1)
Florida State

Despite beating Wake, we still say Florida State is probably screwed. The resume is not good enough in any aspect, and they can in essence only beat the less-appealing teams on their schedule.

Definitely Screwed (9)
Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, California, Virginia, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Boston College, NC State, Miami

Finally, as for the definitely screwed in the ACC, well, it’s everyone else. The SEC has as many teams likely to make it as the ACC does teams guaranteed not to do so. None of these nine have a prayer at an at-large bid for a variety of reasons.

Big Ten

Locks (5)
Michigan, Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Illinois

On to the Big Ten, your locks are Michigan, Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Illinois. We considered putting Oregon here but we will get to them in a moment. Purdue was chasing a 1-seed but they’ve slipped from that for the time being. None of these teams will have a problem getting into the Dance, regardless of what happens on the top-most lines.

Probables (3)
Maryland, Oregon, UCLA

In terms of Big Ten probables, we have UCLA, Maryland, and Oregon. They should all get in with at least mid-range seeds.

Let’s talk Oregon, because this team is very strange to me. They have seven Quadrant 1 wins, and only a handful of teams in Division I have that many or more. You would think they were a shoo-in, but their NET has slipped and they are in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten. The Ducks have also lost five out of their last six and six of their last eight. Have they done enough, probably, but if they’re going to head into March ice-cold, then they are going to make their lives unnecessarily difficult when on paper they should be a lock.

Bubble But IN (2)
Nebraska, Ohio State

Nebraska and Ohio State look to be on the bubble but in. Both of these teams have flopped around a few times but Nebraska has finally turned things around after their losing streak and Ohio State is at least stable. The Buckeyes’ record of 15-10 doesn’t look great but they have five Quadrant 1 wins, as does Nebraska. Both of them have probably done enough as of today, but I wouldn’t be confident enough to move them up to the next tier. Either one is a short losing streak away from danger.

Bubble But OUT (2)
Indiana, USC

As for the teams who are out, we’re saying Indiana and USC. It’s been a rocky year for the Hoosiers but they are still not fully out of the running. They picked up a third Quadrant 1 win and they are going to need more. As for USC, they also have three, but they have a Quadrant 3 loss with a shaky NET ranking of 61. Neither is six feet under for the tournament, but unquestionably out.

Probably Screwed (4)
Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State, Rutgers

Further out of the mix are these four teams. Iowa looked like a tournament contender at one point but their resume is very thin and it just hasn’t improved over the last month or so. Penn State’s NET ranking and record have melted away. Northwestern hasn’t won a road game this season and they’re barely above .500.

Rutgers has four Quadrant 1 wins – more than some tournament teams will – but they are 0-2 in Quadrant 3 games, they have a low NET ranking of 74, and most importantly, they have a losing record, which is a hard stop. The Scarlet Knights would probably have to win out to salvage their season.

Definitely Screwed (2)
Minnesota, Washington

Minnesota and Washington are definitely screwed. Minnesota has a triple-digit NET ranking of 100, which is a non-starter despite their three Quadrant 1 wins, while Washington is below .500 with only one good win to their names.

Big 12

Locks (5)
Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Arizona, Texas Tech

These five teams will get into the tournament for sure. Houston and Iowa State could end up on the 1-line but a lot would have to go right. Iowa State looked like it was theirs for the taking, but they slipped up recently. The other three teams will not contend for the top line, but they will get decent seeds without much difficulty.

Probables (2)
Baylor, West Virginia

I feel better about Baylor on this list than West Virginia, the latter of which has not been playing well lately. Baylor, on the other hand, is treading water. Did we mention these teams are playing each other on February 15? The loser is probably a bubble team.

Bubble But IN (1)
BYU

The Cougars have played themselves into the field, whereas 2-3 weeks ago, I would have said no. They went from no Quadrant 1 wins to three in a short span. Given how some other bubble teams have flopped, the opportunity is right there for BYU. They could have done without the Cincinnati loss but they have several high-quality games coming up on the schedule which could make or break their season.

Not to single them out, but BYU belongs in over a team like Wake at this point, based on body of work.

Bubble But OUT (4)
Kansas State, UCF, Cincinnati, Arizona State

If you’re surprised to see K-State here, so are we. They have come out of nowhere on this win streak and they are not out of contention for a bid. More needs to go right for them, but the trend line is up. Had they beaten Texas Tech a few weeks ago (which was a live possibility), they might be in the field today.

UCF’s problem is a weaker NET ranking of 71 and just two road wins this season. Cincinnati has a better NET (46) but one Quadrant 1 win is just not good enough. Arizona State has played themselves out of the field in the last few weeks, losing nine of their last 11 games and almost falling into “probably screwed” territory. One more loss and they are there.

Probably Screwed (2)
TCU, Utah

TCU and Utah have almost the same NET ranking in the high 70s, but both of them lack quality wins and road wins. Utah lost all of their Quadrant 1 games, while TCU has won one, but lost a Quadrant 3 game. They are probably unsalvageable.

Definitely Screwed (2)
Oklahoma State, Colorado

Oklahoma State is 0-8 against Quadrant 1 with a .500 record and a Quadrant 3 loss. Colorado is having a terrible season.

Big East

Locks (2)
Marquette, St. John’s

We almost snuck one more team in here, but Marquette and St. John’s feels right. The former was (on our board) contending for a 1-seed, but their resume has since been passed by, and a dozen teams have leapfrogged them. St. John’s had been hot to the point where they seem unlikely to be dislodged from the field no matter how the rest of the season goes.

Probables (2)
Creighton, UConn

Both of these teams are in good shape. Creighton fought hard to get into the field, but are now firmly there. UConn has trended downward over the course of the year, and might only end up a seven or eight in March, but it’s hard to picture them being felt behind on Selection Sunday.

Bubble But IN (0)

Bubble But OUT (1)
Xavier

The Musketeers hurt their own case with the recent Villanova loss and they are in desperate need of some quality wins. There are not many opportunities in the regular season. Creighton is the only good team they play between now and the Big East Tournament. Not much opportunity for them to pad their resume, but several chances for them to blow their proverbial foot off with a bad loss. Their path is holding serve against the Big East basement, maybe sneaking a win against Creighton, and then going on a run in the conference tournament.

Probably Screwed (2)
Villanova, Georgetown

The Wildcats’ resume is not good at all, despite a NET in the 50s. Their quadrant records as of today: 1-5 / 5-2 / 3-2 / 6-1. The Columbia and St. Joe’s losses are going to keep them out of the field save for a miracle run.

Georgetown’s resume is not that great, either, despite a 15-9 record. Some of those wins need to be good and there is not a lot to work with at this point.

Definitely Screwed (4)
Providence, Butler, DePaul, Seton Hall

Not much to say about any of them. It’s been a rough year for all, but DePaul isn’t the worst! Seton Hall looks dreadful, sitting at 6-18 so far.

Mountain West

Locks (0)

Well, one of them is going to win the conference tournament – that team is the lock.

Probables (0)

Ditto the above.

Bubble But IN (3)
Utah State, New Mexico, San Diego State

One of these three probably wins the conference tournament, and the other two would be in position to make the tournament. San Diego State is in the weakest position, hanging on by a thread to their bid. Utah State and New Mexico each have a slight buffer, and the former might actually be a “probable” regardless of getting the auto bid.

If anything keeps New Mexico out, it’s probably that Quadrant 4 loss to New Mexico State.

Bubble But OUT (1)
Boise State

The Broncos have a Quadrant 4 loss of their own, and the rest of their resume is not good enough to overcome it (two Q1 wins, 2-3 against Q2, and three road wins). They will need to make some waves in the Mountain West Tournament.

Probably Screwed (2)
Colorado State, Nevada

The Wolf Pack have far too many Quadrant 3 losses (4) and far too few quality wins (1). Colorado State’s record actually looks decent on paper, but it’s just as light on quality victories.

Definitely Screwed (5)
Air Force, Fresno State, Wyoming, San Jose State, UNLV

It’s all over but the screaming for these five, unless one of them lucks into a conference tournament sweep.

Notable Teams in Other Conferences

Locks
Memphis, Gonzaga

Both will probably win their conference tournaments, but if they don’t they are swiping someone else’s at-large bid.

Probables
St. Mary’s

The Gaels have strong metrics and enough quality wins to reasonably expect a tournament bid.

Bubble, If They Don’t Win Their Conference
VCU, UC-Irvine, UC-San Diego

All three of these teams would fall somewhere in the 10-12 seed range if they were guaranteed a bid to the tournament. Should any or all of them lose their conference tournament, they will be in danger of being left behind – the two latter teams above are in the same conference, so one of them will. Hard to say where they land on the bubble without knowing the outcomes of their March conference tournaments.