It’s time for the 2024 Divisional picks as the NFL’s season hurtles towards its conclusion.
Sure, this is our Pick Six segment, but there are only four games. However, the play-on-words is lost if you call it a Pick Four. I’m sure you will understand and bear with us through these difficulties.
Anyway, out of these four games, who is going to win? The winners advance to the conference championships next weekend, and aside from one game, the spreads are kind of big. You will see what we mean in a moment. Games will be presented and picked in chronological order, and both straight-up and against-the-spread picks will be offered. Just remember: All picks are for entertainment purposes only.
2024 Divisional Picks: Saturday
Houston at Kansas City (-8.5)
We open the second weekend of the playoffs with the defending champions playing at home in Kansas City. Will Taylor Swift be at the game cheering on number 87? We can surmise, but I guess we’ll have to find out on Saturday.
Her beloved Chiefs via Mr. Kelce are a heavy favorite in this game against the Texans. We did not pick Houston in the first round, but fair play to them, because they showed up for the game while the Chargers could not get out of their own way. This will be much less fun.
While I don’t know if I’m ready to go as far as to say the Chiefs will win their third Super Bowl in a row, should they win this game? Yes. Patrick Mahomes has all the talent he needs around him, and while the Chiefs are not the kind of team that blows out opponents, they do find ways to win. While we took KC against the spread below, it would not be much of a shock if this is a close game, because that would be in line with how a majority of their season has gone.
Washington at Detroit (-9.5)
The late game on Saturday is the playoff opener for the Lions, who made a conference championship last year for the first time since Wayne Fontes busted his tail on the sidelines. Expectations, which are a very recent thing for this franchise, are higher this year – one might even say they are super.
They will have to get through Washington first, who are well into playing-with-the-house’s-money phase. The Commanders are to be commended on their season, having gone from the NFC East doghouse to winning a road playoff game in just one season. Their task is very difficult, but not impossible. Jayden Daniels is a playmaker and there’s always a chance he can make some magic happen.
What’s working against Washington is that Detroit looks like a machine this year, with talent on both sides of the ball as well as strong coaching. There is a reason they are almost double-digit underdogs, and while I think Washington can acquit themselves well (and I do not feel like laying 9.5 here), stopping the Lions is a much, much bigger task than beating an up-and-down Bucs team.
2024 Divisional Picks: Sunday
Los Angeles at Philadelphia (-6)
The Rams and Eagles will meet in Philly in the Sunday early game. Los Angeles was businesslike in dismissing Minnesota in the first round, which is not how you expect a 14-win team to go out, but these playoffs iron out which teams are cut out for the job and which are not. The Rams were ready to play, and the Vikings were not.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia beat Green Bay, and while the scoreboard says it was a comfortable win, you would have to have watched the game to know that was not the case. Sure, the Eagles made quite a few more plays than the Packers, but they also let Green Bay hang around far too long. The Packers played some dreadful stretches in that game and yet, the Eagles did not pull away until late. Los Angeles may or may not be a tougher out, and lest we forget the Rams are only a few years removed from winning a title.
The metrics and the eye test would suggest Philadelphia is the better team. At the end of the day, I don’t really expect the Rams to win, but they have a better chance of doing so than Minnesota, who would have stood little chance in this environment if they couldn’t handle a neutral-site game against what was an inferior team on-paper. The Eagles have to play better than last week, however.
Baltimore (-1) at Buffalo
The Ravens are the only road favorite this weekend, and this is by far the closest Vegas spread. You have to wait until the last game for perhaps the best one. It’s also going to be, as the kids these days say, cold as balls outside, with a gametime temperature in the mid-teens Fahrenheit. Hey, it’s Buffalo in January – we’ll be lucky if there are no lake-effect snow squalls.
As for the game itself, expect this to be a good one. These teams are fairly evenly matched, but the money has been trending towards Baltimore, given that the Bills opened as the favorite but are not any longer. Baltimore may still be without star wide receiver Zay Flowers, while Buffalo will be getting back kick returner Brandon Codrington. Neither team has an extensive list of questionables.
This game is a battle of the quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson, having an MVP year, against Josh Allen, always an MVP candidate, should make for must-see television later on Sunday. Baltimore also has the ever-present threat of Derrick Henry, who adds another dimension to an already complex and dangerous offense.
Both teams are going to make plays, but the question is, which team makes more of them? On paper, this game is a coin-flip, so give me the home team to advance. There has to be at least one technical upset, right?
